Stock Analysis

Party Time: Brokers Just Made Major Increases To Their NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Earnings Forecasts

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Celebrations may be in order for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. NVIDIA has also found favour with investors, with the stock up an impressive 25% to US$389 over the past week. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from NVIDIA's 45 analysts is for revenues of US$43b in 2024, which would reflect a major 66% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 221% to US$6.23. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$30b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.29 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for NVIDIA

NasdaqGS:NVDA Earnings and Revenue Growth May 29th 2023

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for NVIDIA 48% to US$426 on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic NVIDIA analyst has a price target of US$600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$206. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NVIDIA's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that NVIDIA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 96% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 24% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NVIDIA to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at NVIDIA.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NVIDIA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

What are the risks and opportunities for NVIDIA?

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally.

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  • Earnings are forecast to grow 30.99% per year

  • Earnings grew by 33.1% over the past year


  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

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